As St. Patrick's Day celebrations unfold across Ireland and the UK today, the familiar sight of pints of ‘the black stuff’ being poured is a reminder of Guinness's category dominance. However, the team at Barfly are noting subtle shifts suggesting Murphy's may be emerging as an underdog in the UK market. 

Guinness: The Reigning Champion 

Guinness has successfully transformed from a traditional Irish stout to a global cultural icon. Recent years have seen the brand experience remarkable growth, particularly among younger consumers. Diageo's strategic marketing has repositioned Guinness as a premium choice with authentic heritage. At the same time, a swell of cultural influences, from Kim K or Barack Obama sipping on a pint, to the now ubiquitous ‘Splitting of the G’, have resulted in it being the highest-selling beer in the on-trade by the end of October 2024 (CGA). 

The Price Pressure Point 

A significant factor potentially reshaping the stout landscape is Diageo's pricing strategy. The giant has implemented consistent price increases for Guinness over recent years, with another 4.2% rise scheduled for May 2025. This continues a pattern of increases that are squeezing publican’s margins. 

Hospitality venues face a difficult decision: absorb these costs and reduce profitability, pass them directly to consumers through higher prices, or seek alternative stout options. Many pubs are reaching a tipping point where the retail price of Guinness risks alienating price-sensitive consumers. 

This pricing pressure has created a strategic opening for Murphy's. Heineken has maintained more moderate pricing for its stout, making it an increasingly attractive option for publicans, giving the brand unprecedented visibility and trial opportunities. 

The Counter-Culture Effect 

Yet this mainstream success may be creating space for alternatives. As Guinness becomes increasingly mainstream, a subset of consumers is inevitably looking for something different and less ubiquitous. 

While Murphy’s market share remains significantly smaller than Guinness, on-trade data from major UK cities reveals growing interest in it as an alternative choice. The brand reported a 632% increase in pints sold in the UK on-trade over the last festive period. 

The anti-corporate sentiment among certain consumer segments, particularly millennials and Gen Z, fuels this counter-culture effect. These consumers often seek out brands they perceive as smaller, more authentic alternatives to global corporate entities. Murphy's benefits from this perception as the underdog alternative to the Guinness juggernaut. 

However, this positioning comes with inherent risk. Murphy's ownership by Heineken, itself one of the world's largest brewing conglomerates, could potentially undermine its counter-culture credentials if this fact becomes more widely recognised. Unlike truly independent craft breweries, Murphy's cannot authentically claim to be a small-scale alternative to corporate beer. This paradox could potentially backfire if consumers seeking authentic alternatives learn more about the brand's corporate parentage. 

Industry Implications 

For on-premise venues, stocking both options is unlikely to win favour with either industry giant, leaving pub operators with the choice - Guinness or Murphy’s.  

While Murphy's is unlikely to overtake Guinness's dominant position at any time soon, conditions exist for it to grow its share significantly. Heineken's global distribution network provides the infrastructure needed for expansion if consumer interest continues to develop. This emerging dynamic highlights a broader trend: mainstream success creates counter-culture opportunities that can be capitalised on. 

As the stout category continues to grow, we may be witnessing the development of a more nuanced market where both brands thrive, with their own devout followers.  

Written by: Ryan Prescott, Strategy Consultant