If you read the press these days, you'd be forgiven for thinking that alcohol sales are plummeting to inescapable depths, never to return, and that the world is soon to be entirely teetotal. The reality is of course very different, but it’s been hard for those far from the frontline to demonstrate what’s actually going on.

However, there’s a recent chart from The New York Times getting a lot of traction online that arguably solves that conundrum. It shows total alcohol sales in the US from 2016 to the present day, and the story is clear:

• From 2016 to early 2020, total alcohol sales are on a steady and consistent upwards trajectory, rising from $5bn to $5.5bn during that period.
• Then Covid strikes and, as the chart says, “…Americans hunkered down and bought a lot of alcohol.”  A jump of $1bn is almost immediate and tells the story that we all know too well – long days, late nights, and cocktails of varying qualities being hastily made in the kitchen.
• But the interesting point is what follows. From its pandemic peak in early 2021, total alcohol sales then started to drop, as the world opened up and ‘normality’ resumed. Fast forward to the present day and US sales volumes have now returned to the same pre-pandemic growth trajectory, joining the line $0.5bn ahead of where it was pre-Covid.

So, based on this data, what we’re seeing is a normalisation to pre-pandemic volumes. Yes, the make-up of total alcohol sales today will be different to before Covid, and there’ll be more lower ABV drinks in the mix. But the headline is this isn’t a downturn – it’s a reset back to the pre-Covid growth path after an extraordinary period when pandemic sales skyrocketed. 

So don’t believe everything you read. It’s not all bad news.

Written by: Nick Dudley Williams, Barfly CEO